The 2025–26 season of the gray whale census at Point Vicente ended on May 25, 2026, a day with no gray whales on the board. About a mile offshore, a probable fin whale surfaced inside a group of common dolphins working a fish boil. A humpback came up beside a second boil, and a minke whale fed back and forth just inshore of it for half an hour while thousands of seabirds worked the water overhead. The team photographed its whiteboard with the final tally and signed off with a date: it would be back on the patio of the Point Vicente Interpretive Center on December 1, 2026.

That date is now less than four weeks away. Last season's final numbers deserve a second look before the whiteboard fills up again, because they appear to disagree with the federal government's count, and the reason they don't comes down to what the board on the patio actually counts.

The Same Winter, Two Different Directions

The American Cetacean Society's Los Angeles chapter has run this census full-time since 1984, and the PVIC patio has been its main station since the 1985–86 season. Its final 2025–26 update reported 214 southbound gray whales, the second-lowest southbound count in the project's history. It also reported 445 northbound whales, a new record low.

During that same southbound migration, NOAA Fisheries ran its shore survey from Granite Canyon on the central California coast from January 5 to February 13, 2026. In a July 2026 technical memo, it estimated the Eastern North Pacific gray whale population at 17,750. A season earlier the estimate was 12,890, so the new figure is roughly 38 percent higher.

Here are the last three Point Vicente seasons side by side:

Northbound counts have fallen three seasons in a row. Over two of those seasons, NOAA's population estimate fell and then jumped. Both sets of numbers are accurate. They measure different things.

What a Cliff 138 Feet Up Can See

The census sits on a cliffside post about 138 feet above the water, where the ocean floor drops off steeply close to shore. ACS-LA's own 2024–25 summary lists the height as 137 feet. Volunteers from ACS, the Cabrillo Whalewatch Program and the public work the station with Fujinon 7x50 binoculars fitted with built-in reticles and compasses, and several use spotting scopes to confirm sightings. They record weather and sea conditions at least hourly.

The project's description of itself explains everything else. ACS-LA writes:

"Because the majority of gray whales use off-shore migratory routes in this area (primarily through the Channel Islands), especially on the southbound migration, we see only a small proportion of the total gray whale population, so our counts cannot be used to determine that population. Instead, our project focuses on ascertaining seasonal usage of the nearshore migratory path, and documents changing trends over time."

So the count on the PVIC whiteboard tracks how many gray whales choose the lane along the Peninsula's coast. A whale that heads south outside the Channel Islands still counts toward NOAA's population but never passes the patio. The same page notes that weather and shifting route preferences make the annual counts swing sharply, and that those swings don't necessarily mean the population is changing.

NOAA Has Its Own Doubts About the Jump

The federal number deserves the same caution. NOAA's memo calls the 17,750 estimate "an encouraging finding" after the drop between 2023–24 and 2024–25. It then points out that the increase from 2024–25 to 2025–26 is faster than gray whales can grow, which it puts at a maximum rate of 0.062. It adds that the jump came while calf production stayed low. The authors conclude that factors other than births and deaths must be affecting how many whales pass the central coast. Their list includes sampling error, analytical bias, changes in detection, and possible changes in migratory behavior.

Changes in migratory behavior are the one thing the Point Vicente census is built to measure. In 2025–26, both data sets point toward whales using the route differently, with fewer of them passing close to the Peninsula's shore.

For longer context, NOAA's revised estimate for 2015–16 is 27,270. The agency links the 2019–2023 Unusual Mortality Event to ecosystem changes in the Arctic and sub-Arctic that reduced food supplies and led to malnutrition, fewer calves and more deaths. It says low calf production since 2019 is still a concern despite the latest increase.

The Number on the Board That Carries Weight

Calf counts are the one number on the patio that speaks directly to the population's health. ACS-LA says it records calf sightings in detail on both migrations to track how many young whales join the population. Calves are a share of whatever passes the patio, so the percentage of calves says more than the raw count. As a share, it also cancels out much of the route-shift problem that distorts the totals.

Here is how the calf share has moved at Point Vicente:

• 2023–24: 22 calves among 225 southbound whales, about 9.8 percent, and 34 among 579 northbound, about 5.9 percent.
• 2024–25: no southbound calves, and 8 among 485 northbound, or 1.6 percent. Both were record lows.
• 2025–26: 17 among 214 southbound, or 7.9 percent, and 16 among 445 northbound, or 3.6 percent.

Census director Alisa Schulman-Janiger summed up the season as "more gray whales calves - cautious optimism!" The calf numbers improved even as the total lane count hit a new low. The calf percentage is the line on the whiteboard most worth checking this winter. A reader can calculate it on the patio from two numbers.

The 2024–25 summary also shows how thin a slow season looks from the bluff. The project ran 173 days that season, and on 50 of them no gray whales were seen. The busiest southbound day brought 11 whales, on January 27, a record-low southbound peak. In a July 2026 interview with Spectrum News, Schulman-Janiger said the busiest single day in 2025–26 brought about 30 whales.

The Water Is Already Busy Before December 1

The census season starts on a fixed date. The whales don't follow it. The Harbor Breeze Cruises daily sightings log for its San Pedro trips shows how much is already moving off this stretch of coast:

• October 11, 2026: gray whales in the harbor on the 12:30 and 3:00 trips
• October 17, 2026: about 1,000 common dolphins and two Pacific white-sided dolphins at midday, and a gray whale on the 5:30 trip
• October 18–19, 2026: a humpback whale on each day, with hundreds of common dolphins and groups of bottlenose dolphins
• October 25, 2026: six orcas on both the 12:30 and 3:00 trips

None of those whales will appear on the census board, which starts its tally on December 1. That's also why the board records more than gray whales. Its observers log any marine mammal in view and note behavior, from breaching and spyhopping to interactions with kelp, along with possible human impacts such as boat interactions and entanglements. The 2024–25 season added blue, fin, humpback, minke and sperm whales, several dolphin species, sea lions, seals and an elephant seal. Observers also noted many skinny gray whales.

Timing a Visit to the Patio

Past seasons give a rough calendar. In 2024–25, the southbound peak week ran January 25–31. ACS-LA marked February 21 as the official turnaround, its date for the season's shift from southbound to northbound traffic. The northbound high came on March 15, which opened a peak week of 96 whales through March 21. Those dates change from year to year. Even so, late January and mid-March gave the patio its fullest days that season.

Practical details for the season ahead:

1. Where: the patio of the Point Vicente Interpretive Center, 31501 Palos Verdes Drive West.
2. When: daylight hours, seven days a week, December 1 through late May.
3. The building: the City of Rancho Palos Verdes lists the museum and gift shop as open daily from 10 a.m. to 5 p.m., with the park grounds open dawn to dusk. It's worth checking the city's facility page before a visit with guests.
4. Visitors: ACS-LA says the public is welcome at the observation post.
5. Volunteering: prospective census volunteers can contact Schulman-Janiger through the ACS-LA census page. Training for the separate Cabrillo Whalewatch program starts each year on the first Tuesday of October, according to ACS-LA, so this fall's sessions have already started.

In 2024–25, 100 volunteers put in 8,767 hours of effort over 173 operating days, and weather closed the station only three times. The 43rd season begins December 1, and the first number on the whiteboard will measure how many whales choose the Peninsula's nearshore lane.

Suzanne Dyer has followed the Palos Verdes coast for more than 30 years, from its bluffs to the homes that look out over them. If you own a home with a view of that water and want to know what it's worth today, Suzanne Dyer offers a Confidential Home Valuation, prepared with the same attention to local detail.