Suzanne Dyer
Phone
(310) 528-7480
Email
[email protected]
What the latest refinance wave means for homeowners and buyers in Rolling Hills, Rolling Hills Estates, Rancho Palos Verdes, and Palos Verdes Estates
If you have owned a home on the Palos Verdes Peninsula for any length of time, you have already learned a truth that many markets never get to experience: quality locations with limited supply tend to hold their value, even when the broader market feels uncertain. That does not mean prices move in a straight line, especially when interest rates change quickly, but it does mean that strategy matters more here than almost anywhere else.
A new national signal is flashing that homeowners should pay attention to: refinancing demand is accelerating again. According to a recent Homes.com report, refinance activity jumped to the highest pace in months as mortgage rates moved to their lowest averages in more than three years. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that mortgage applications increased 14.1% week over week for the week ending January 16, 2026, with the Refinance Index rising 20% from the prior week.
In client language, that means many homeowners across the country are starting to run the numbers again. Even if a refinance does not work for everyone, this type of rate movement affects buyer psychology, seller leverage, and the pace of the market.
Now let’s bring that national story home to the Palos Verdes Peninsula and the four cities my clients ask about most: Rolling Hills, Rolling Hills Estates, Rancho Palos Verdes, and Palos Verdes Estates. We will look at what 2025 price movement actually looked like, why different data sources can show different outcomes at the same time, and how to use today’s environment to make better decisions in 2026.
What the article is telling homeowners right now
The key takeaway from the Homes.com piece is not simply that “refis are up.” It is why they are up and what that reveals about rate sensitivity.
Here is what is driving the shift:
1) Rates moved down enough to wake up the refinance market
Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey shows the average 30-year fixed rate at 6.06% as of January 15, 2026, and 6.09% as of January 22, 2026. These levels are meaningfully below where we were a year earlier, and they are low enough to trigger activity among borrowers who have been waiting for a better window.
2) The refinance index is reacting first, which is normal
When rates drop, refinancing typically responds before purchase demand, because homeowners can act without negotiating a price, competing for inventory, or timing a move. The MBA’s weekly survey showed refinance activity rising sharply week over week, which aligns with the Homes.com report describing the strongest pace in months.
3) For move-up buyers, a refi wave can turn into a listing wave
This is the most important “next step” for local markets like Palos Verdes. When some homeowners refinance or restructure debt, it can free up monthly cash flow. That can lead to renovations, which can lead to resale listings that present better, show better, and sell stronger. Separately, when rates settle lower, more homeowners consider selling because the payment shock on the next home becomes less punishing.
So the article is really about momentum. National momentum influences local confidence, and local confidence influences local pricing.
Palos Verdes Peninsula pricing in 2025: appreciation or depreciation?
You asked specifically for appreciation or depreciation information for 2025 in Rolling Hills, Rolling Hills Estates, Rancho Palos Verdes, and Palos Verdes Estates. The honest answer is that in 2025, you could find both “down” and “up” signals depending on what metric you use:
-
Zillow’s Home Value Index (ZHVI) is a model-based index designed to track typical values across all homes in an area over time.
-
Redfin’s median sale price is based on what actually sold in a given month, which can swing dramatically in small, luxury markets because a handful of sales can change the median.
Both are useful, but they answer different questions.
Zillow ZHVI: typical values showed modest softening in 2025
Using Zillow’s city pages with data through December 31, 2025:
-
Rolling Hills: typical home value about $3,031,909, down 3.2% year over year.
-
Rolling Hills Estates: typical home value about $1,822,421, down 3.4% year over year.
-
Rancho Palos Verdes: typical home value about $1,743,173, down 3.0% year over year.
-
Palos Verdes Estates: typical home value about $2,607,427, down 2.0% year over year.
This is an important storyline for 2025: the Peninsula acted like a high-quality coastal market during a rate-constrained year, with modest downward pressure in typical values rather than any dramatic reset.
Redfin: median sale price in late 2025 showed mixed results
Looking at Redfin’s city housing market trend pages for December 2025:
-
Rolling Hills Estates: median sale price $1.504M, up 25.9% year over year (Dec 2025).
-
Rancho Palos Verdes: median sale price $1.95M, up 12.1% year over year (Dec 2025).
-
Palos Verdes Estates: median sale price $2.375M, down 6.9% year over year (Dec 2025).
You will notice what looks like a contradiction: Zillow suggests modest declines, while Redfin shows strong median gains in Rolling Hills Estates and Rancho Palos Verdes.
That is not an error. It is the reality of small, high-end markets.
Why one source can show “down” while another shows “up”
If you live in Palos Verdes, you already know how this works intuitively:
-
One month might have several remodeled view homes close, and the market looks like it is “surging.”
-
Another month might have more fixers or smaller homes close, and the market looks like it is “softening.”
In luxury markets, the median is heavily influenced by the mix of homes sold
A median sale price is not the same thing as “the value of my home.” It is a snapshot of the middle sale that month. If the sales mix changes, the median changes.
Model-based indexes tend to smooth out the mix
Indexes like Zillow’s ZHVI are designed to estimate typical values across the entire housing stock. That tends to produce steadier moves and, in years like 2025, can show mild declines even while certain segments (view streets, remodeled inventory, school-adjacent pockets) are trading at a premium.
What matters for clients
For sellers, the question is not “did the median go up?” The question is:
-
What is my home’s buyer pool today?
-
How sensitive is that buyer pool to interest rates?
-
How scarce is my type of home right now?
What condition and presentation standard do I need to meet to get a premium result?
For buyers, the question is:
-
Where is leverage actually showing up?
-
Which neighborhoods are holding firm?
-
How do I win the right home without overpaying?
City-by-city: what 2025 signals mean in plain English
Rolling Hills: stable scarcity, high variance, and premium pricing for the right product
Rolling Hills is a gated city with extremely limited inventory and a buyer pool that often has more flexibility than the typical suburban market. Zillow’s typical value indicator showed a modest decline year over year through the end of 2025.
What that usually means here is not a “down market,” it means a selective market. Buyers pay premiums for privacy, land, views, and turnkey condition, while properties that feel dated, overpriced, or hard to insure can sit longer.
In Rolling Hills, pricing is not a formula. It is positioning. In 2025, buyers were willing, but they were disciplined.
Rolling Hills Estates: the “livability” market, with strong results when inventory is tight
Rolling Hills Estates is often driven by lifestyle convenience, single-level living, and proximity to schools, shopping, and Peninsula amenities. Zillow’s typical value measure showed a small year-over-year decline through December 2025. Yet Redfin’s median sale price in December 2025 showed a large year-over-year increase.
The practical takeaway: there were periods in 2025 where well-priced homes that matched what buyers wanted (updated, functional floorplan, good curb appeal, minimal deferred maintenance) performed very well. If fewer homes sell in a given month, one or two premium closings can lift the median dramatically.
Rancho Palos Verdes: broad price bands, multiple micro-markets, and a “view premium” that persists
Rancho Palos Verdes is not one market. It is many markets: coastal versus inland, ocean-view versus neighborhood view, newer construction versus original stock, and areas where geotechnical or insurance considerations matter more.
Zillow showed a modest decline in typical values through year-end 2025. Redfin showed the median sale price up year over year in December 2025. Both can be true when premium segments trade while other segments are quieter.
In 2025, RPV’s strongest performance tended to show up where buyers felt they were getting long-term lifestyle value: views, yards, single-level options, and proximity to coastal trails and Peninsula schools.
Palos Verdes Estates: prestige plus school pull, with a more selective 2025
Palos Verdes Estates remains one of the most coveted coastal communities in Southern California. In 2025, Zillow’s typical value measure showed a small year-over-year decline. Redfin’s December 2025 median sale price showed a year-over-year decline as well.
That combination suggests PVE’s 2025 story was less about demand disappearing and more about buyers insisting on value relative to condition and location. In other words, the best homes still sold, but buyers were more careful. The market rewarded turnkey, punished “almost updated,” and asked hard questions about renovation costs.
How refinancing momentum can influence Palos Verdes in 2026
When refinance demand rises nationally, here is what I watch locally:
1) Buyer activity tends to pick up first at the margins
Some buyers move from “watching” to “touring” when rates stop rising. If rates move from the mid 6s toward the low 6s and stabilize, it can bring more confidence, even if affordability is still challenging.
2) Sellers become more willing to list, but only if they see a path
Many homeowners are still anchored to older low-rate mortgages. A small rate drop may not be enough to trigger a move for everyone, but it can start to reduce the emotional barrier. More importantly, sellers who need to move for life reasons will feel better about the buyer pool.
3) Renovation and improvement projects increase
If homeowners refinance or free up cash flow, they invest back into the home. In Palos Verdes, that matters. Updated inventory is what commands premium pricing. A wave of improvements can raise the overall presentation standard and strengthen the perception of value.
What this means for homeowners thinking about selling
If you are considering a sale in 2026, 2025 taught us three lessons on the Peninsula:
-
-
Lesson 1: Pricing is not just about comps, it is about replacement reality
In a high-end coastal market, buyers compare your home to:
-
What else is available right now
-
What it would cost to remodel what you did not remodel
-
The time, permitting, and disruption required to get there
In 2025, that “remodel math” became more intense because rates increased the monthly payment. When a buyer’s payment is higher, they have less appetite to take on a big renovation.
Lesson 2: Turnkey is a category, not a compliment
Turnkey means the buyer can move in and feel proud immediately. It means lighting, paint, floors, kitchens, baths, and outdoor areas present well. In 2025, turnkey homes captured a premium. Homes that felt like “a project” required a clearer discount.
Lesson 3: Micro-location inside each city matters more than headlines
A city-wide statistic is a starting point, not an answer. Two streets can behave like different markets because of view corridors, school adjacency, lot usability, and neighborhood feel.
What this means for buyers
If you are buying in 2026, this refinance and rate story gives you two opportunities:
Opportunity 1: If rates move down, competition can move up
When rates fall, more buyers re-enter. That does not always push prices up immediately, but it does increase competition for the best homes. If you see a home that truly fits, decisiveness matters.
Opportunity 2: In selective years, negotiation is about terms as much as price
Sellers respond to certainty. Strong down payments, clean contingencies, and clear timelines can win homes, sometimes even without being the absolute highest number.
AEO-friendly FAQ: quick answers clients ask me every week
Is Palos Verdes still appreciating long term even if 2025 was mixed?
Yes, long-term value is supported by scarcity, coastal location, and lifestyle demand. In 2025, typical value measures showed modest softening, not a breakdown, which is consistent with a rate-constrained year in a premium market.
Why did some sources show declines while others showed increases?
Because they measure different things. Zillow’s index estimates typical values across the full housing stock, while Redfin’s median sale price depends heavily on which homes sold in a particular month, which can swing in small luxury markets.
Does a refinance surge matter if I am not refinancing?
Yes. It signals rate movement and consumer confidence. That can influence buyer demand, seller willingness to list, and the overall momentum of the market.
What mortgage rate level gets buyers more active in Palos Verdes?
There is no single number, but stability matters as much as the rate itself. Freddie Mac’s survey showed rates in the low 6% range in mid to late January 2026, which is low enough to increase activity compared
to higher-rate periods.
Should I wait for rates to drop more before buying or selling?
Trying to time rates perfectly is rarely the winning strategy. The better approach is to align your move with life plans, then structure the deal smartly. If rates drop, you can potentially refinance later. If rates rise, you will be glad you locked something in.
SEO keywords to naturally match what people search (and what this blog covers)
Palos Verdes real estate market 2025, Rolling Hills home values 2025, Rolling Hills Estates home prices 2025, Rancho Palos Verdes market trends, Palos Verdes Estates home prices 2025, mortgage rates 2026, refinance activity 2026, South Bay luxury real estate, best time to sell in Palos Verdes, buying a home in Palos Verdes.
The bottom line for Palos Verdes clients
The national refinance story is a leading indicator that the rate environment is shifting enough to change behavior. The local 2025 story shows something equally important: the Peninsula did what premium coastal markets tend to do, it stayed resilient, but it demanded accuracy.
If you want to sell, the path to a premium is clear positioning, correct pricing, and presentation that matches today’s buyer expectations.
If you want to buy, the advantage comes from knowing which micro-markets are holding firm, which listings are overpriced, and how to structure terms that win.
If you want to understand your home’s true value range in Rolling Hills, Rolling Hills Estates, Rancho Palos Verdes, or Palos Verdes Estates, I can break it down by micro-neighborhood, condition, view category, and buyer pool, not just by city averages.
Suzanne Dyer
Wall Street Journal/REALTRENDS #59 in California, #204 in the Nation
Luxury Real Estate Specialist
Los Angeles Business Journal Top 100 Realtors in Los Angeles
Top Woman Listing Agent in the South Bay & Palos Verdes 2023
Over 1 Billion Dollars in Career Sales
Top Realtor in Rolling Hills, Rolling Hills Estate, Rancho Palos Verdes, Palos Verdes Estates, and the South Bay
Strand Hill | Forbes Global Properties
CA BRE license #01054310
www.suzannedyer.com
310-528-7480 cell. -